Simple Moving Average (18), MACD, ADX Strategy

Discover a pullback trading strategy using 18 SMA, MACD, and ADX for Stocks and Gold. Identify entry points with an upward-sloping SMA on daily, weekly, and hou

Published · Updated · Methodology: Technical Indicators

Part of: Moving Average Strategies

  • Methodology: Technical Indicators
  • Content type: strategy
  • Timeframes: Any timeframe, Weekly, Daily, Hourly
  • Markets: Stocks, Gold

Indicators used

  • SMA
  • MACD
  • ADX

Source video

Decoded from: Simple MA Strategy Provides Risk/Reward Setups by Joe Rabil — watch the original

Key timestamps:

  • 0:40 - Introduction to simplifying trading and reducing risk
  • 1:50 - Focus on capturing one leg of a move
  • 2:20 - Importance of risk/reward equation
  • 3:00 - Win rate expectation (45-55%)
  • 3:20 - Risking a small amount for 2x-3x reward
  • 4:20 - Discipline and honoring stops
  • 4:40 - Take profit at 2x or 3x risk
  • 5:00 - Moving stop to breakeven once profit exceeds risk
  • 5:40 - Pullback to rising 18 SMA
  • 6:00 - Definition of upward slope for 18 SMA
  • 6:40 - Avoiding vertical 18 SMA
  • 7:00 - Entry on bottoming tail at 18 SMA
  • 7:20 - Using smaller timeframes for entry and stop placement
  • 8:20 - Risking less than the bar, stop below the low
  • 9:00 - Conceptual understanding of 18 SMA slope and risk/reward
  • 10:00 - Narrow range bar at 18 SMA for good risk/reward
  • 11:00 - Not caring about leaving money on the table
  • 12:00 - Entry close to 18 SMA to limit losses
  • 12:40 - If 18 SMA breaks, the trade is over
  • 13:40 - Emerging trends vs ongoing trends
  • 14:00 - Monthly/weekly scale and trail method
  • 15:00 - Pullbacks to rising 18 SMA with momentum
  • 16:00 - MACD and ADX for confirmation

Strategy overview

A moving average smooths price into a single reference line that a strategy can lean on for trend direction. What separates this entry is where the source spends its attention: the chapter map of Joe Rabil's "Simple MA Strategy Provides Risk/Reward Setups" opens on simplifying trading and reducing risk, and never returns to the indicator. The only setting on record is an 18-period SMA — shorter and less conventional than the 20, 50 or 200 lengths most moving-average pages are built around — sitting alongside MACD and ADX whose periods the source does not pin down.

The stated objective is narrower than trend-following usually implies: capturing one leg of a move rather than riding a trend from start to finish. That reframes what the average is for. A bounded segment has a defined place to be wrong, and the video builds outward from there — the risk/reward equation first, then an explicitly stated win-rate expectation of 45–55%, then risking a small amount against a 2x–3x reward. Those figures are the video's planning assumptions, presented as what a trader should expect to live with, not as measured results from a test.

No entry or exit rules are on file for this entry, so what the source documents is a posture toward risk with an indicator trio as its frame rather than a specified system. The timeframe spread — weekly, daily and hourly, with no minute charts — puts it at swing scale, and the closing chapter is discipline and honoring stops, which is consistent with a presentation where the stop, not the signal, carries the weight.

Topics

pine script · trading strategy · tradingview strategy · technical indicators · sma strategy · macd strategy · adx strategy · pullback strategy · stocks trading strategy · gold trading strategy · swing trading · daily trading · hourly trading · sma macd adx strategy

Frequently asked questions

Why an 18-period moving average instead of the usual 20 or 50?

The source records 18 periods as the setting. Shorter averages sit closer to price and turn sooner than the common 20, 50 or 200 lengths, at the cost of reacting to noise more often — a trade-off that fits a strategy aiming at a single leg of a move rather than a full trend.

What do MACD and ADX contribute alongside a moving average?

MACD reads momentum and the timing of shifts between two smoothed averages, while ADX measures trend strength without saying anything about direction. Together they are commonly used to judge whether a moving-average reference is worth acting on. The specific periods used for either are not on record for this entry.

Is a 45–55% win rate realistic for a strategy like this?

That is the expectation the video states rather than a tested outcome. Mathematically, a win rate near a coin flip can still carry positive expectancy when each win is worth two to three times what each loss costs — which is why the source frames the risk/reward equation before anything else.

What timeframes does this apply to?

The entry is listed for weekly, daily and hourly charts, placing it at swing scale rather than intraday scalping. Strategy Decoder catalogs the source and what is documented about it so you can judge whether the approach is worth testing on your own data.

About this strategy page

This trading strategy was decoded by Strategy Decoder's AI from a public YouTube trading video and turned into a structured, reviewable specification. In the interactive app this page shows the full entry and exit logic, risk management settings, the indicators involved with their parameters, AlgoWizard-compatible logic and a Pine Script export ready for TradingView backtesting — plus an automated backtest verdict when one has been computed for this strategy.

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