Fabian Market Timing Model, Copac Curve, 200-day Moving Average

Enhance your trading with the Fabian Market Timing Model, Copac Curve, and 200-day MA. This strategy uses multiple moving averages to identify market regimes an

Published · Updated · Methodology: Technical Indicators

Part of: Moving Average Strategies

  • Methodology: Technical Indicators
  • Content type: educational
  • Timeframes: Weekly (for 39-week MA), Monthly (for 10-month MA), Daily (for 200-day MA)
  • Markets: S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Utilities Sector, SPY (ETF tracking S&P 500)

Indicators used

  • Fabian Market Timing Model
  • Copac Curve
  • 200-day Moving Average
  • 39-week Moving Average
  • 10-month Moving Average

Source video

Decoded from: 3 Market Regime Indicators (Backtest And Rules) by Quantified Strategies — watch the original

Key timestamps:

  • 0:18 - Introduction to three market regime indicators
  • 0:32 - Fabian timing model explained
  • 1:32 - Fabian timing model trading rules
  • 2:42 - Copac curve strategy explained
  • 3:18 - Copac curve trading rules
  • 4:07 - 200-day moving average timing indicator explained
  • 5:28 - 200-day moving average trading rules

Strategy overview

A market regime indicator is not an entry signal but a switch that answers a prior question: should you hold exposure to this market at all right now? This entry decodes a Quantified Strategies rundown that lines up three long-standing answers to that question side by side — the Fabian Market Timing Model, the Copac Curve (more commonly written Coppock Curve), and the plain 200-day moving average — each given a short explainer followed by its own rules segment inside a roughly four-minute survey.

What makes the trio worth seeing together is how close they sit once you convert the units. Fabian tracks the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Utilities sector against their 39-week moving averages; the Copac Curve is a computed momentum line compared to its own 10-month average; the third is the familiar 200-day line read on a daily chart. Roughly 200 trading days, 39 weeks and 10 months describe a broadly similar stretch of market history, so the meaningful differences are structural rather than temporal — how many markets get polled before a verdict is issued, and whether the average is applied to price itself or to a transformed series. The channel's framing is characteristically backtest-first, and the video's ordering of indicator-then-rules reflects that.

Two things are worth carrying into the material. The title advertises a backtest, but no market, dataset or test period is stated in what is decoded here, so read "backtest" as a description of the video's approach rather than a result you can lean on. And with three separate indicators covered in about four minutes, this is a comparative map rather than an implementation manual — no mechanical rule set is decoded for this entry, so its value lies in seeing which of the three matches how you already think about being in or out of a market.

Topics

fabian market timing model · copac curve · 200-day moving average strategy · technical indicators · trading strategy · spx trading strategy · dow jones trading · market timing model · trend trading strategy · swing trading · pine script · tradingview strategy · market regime indicator

Frequently asked questions

What is a market regime indicator?

A regime indicator classifies the broader state of a market — uptrend, downtrend, risk-on or risk-off — in order to decide whether to hold exposure at all, rather than to time individual entries. The three covered in this video all use long-horizon moving averages to make that call.

What is the Fabian Market Timing Model?

It is a long-horizon timing approach that tracks the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Utilities sector against their 39-week moving averages, taking the combined position of those markets relative to their averages as the signal instead of relying on a single index.

What is the Copac Curve?

Usually written as the Coppock Curve, it is a calculated momentum line rather than a raw price series. In this video it is read against its own 10-month moving average, which makes it a monthly-clock indicator by construction.

Do these three indicators say different things about the market?

They run on different clocks — 39 weeks, 10 months and 200 days — that cover roughly comparable stretches of history, so they will often point the same way; the differences are in how many markets are polled and whether the average is applied to price or to a derived momentum line. Strategy Decoder catalogs videos like this one so regime approaches can be compared, though no mechanical rule set is decoded for this entry.

About this strategy page

This trading strategy was decoded by Strategy Decoder's AI from a public YouTube trading video and turned into a structured, reviewable specification. In the interactive app this page shows the full entry and exit logic, risk management settings, the indicators involved with their parameters, AlgoWizard-compatible logic and a Pine Script export ready for TradingView backtesting — plus an automated backtest verdict when one has been computed for this strategy.

Strategy Decoder catalogs 2,229 decoded strategies. Each one is extracted with confidence scoring, cross-linked to the indicators it uses, and kept up to date as new videos are processed daily. Load this page with JavaScript enabled to use the interactive tools, or start from the strategy explorer to filter by methodology, market and timeframe.

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