Fabian Timing Model, Copak Curve, 200-Day Moving Average Market Timing Strategy

Time the market using the Fabian Model, Copak Curve, and 200-Day Moving Average. This strategy uses multiple indicators to signal entries and exits on major ind

Published · Updated · Methodology: Technical Indicators

Part of: Moving Average Strategies

  • Methodology: Technical Indicators
  • Content type: strategy
  • Timeframes: Weekly (for 39-week MA), Monthly (for 10-month MA), Daily (for 200-day MA)
  • Markets: S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrials, Utilities Sector

Indicators used

  • 39-week moving average
  • Copak Curve
  • 10-month moving average
  • 200-day moving average

Source video

Decoded from: Market Timing Strategy (Backtest + Trading Rules) by Quantified Strategies — watch the original

Key timestamps:

  • 0:30 - Introduction to market timing strategies
  • 0:50 - Fabian Timing Model rules
  • 2:49 - Copak Curve strategy rules
  • 4:20 - 200-Day Moving Average strategy rules
  • 5:40 - Discussion on 200-day MA's advantage

Strategy overview

Market timing with a moving average is a different job from trading with one: the average is not an entry trigger but a switch that says whether to be in the market at all. This entry files a Quantified Strategies video that lines up three separate answers to that switch — the Fabian Timing Model, the Copak Curve, and the plain 200-day moving average — and gives each one its own chapter rather than blending them into a single system.

What makes the filing distinctive is that the three models are each expressed in a different calendar unit: 39 weeks for the Fabian model, 10 months for the second reference average, and 200 days for the third. Converted to a common unit those horizons land close to one another, so the comparison is less about lookback length than about the bar you measure it on — weekly, monthly, or daily — and how often that bar lets you change your mind. The Copak Curve is the outlier of the group, a long-term momentum construction rather than a smoothed price line, and it is filed here without a period setting because it is built from a calculation rather than a single length.

The video runs short for three models — the timing rules begin at 0:50, the second model arrives at 2:49, the third at 4:20 — and it closes on a chapter that stops describing and starts arguing, discussing the 200-day average's advantage over the other two. This entry files the concepts, the indicators and that chapter structure only: despite the title's "Backtest + Trading Rules" billing, the filing states no index or instrument, no test period and no dataset, and no mechanical rules were decoded for this page.

Topics

trading strategy · market timing strategy · technical indicators · moving average strategy · copak curve · fabian timing model · s&p 500 strategy · dow jones strategy · weekly strategy · monthly strategy · daily strategy · swing trading · pine script · tradingview strategy

Frequently asked questions

What is a moving average market timing strategy?

A market timing strategy uses a long-term moving average to decide whether to hold a position in a market or stay out of it, rather than to generate individual trade entries. Price above the average is generally read as a signal to be invested; price below it as a signal to step aside.

Which timing models does this video cover?

Three: the Fabian Timing Model, built on a 39-week moving average; the Copak Curve; and the 200-day moving average. A 10-month moving average also appears as a reference in the monthly-bar version. Each gets its own chapter in the source video, and the final chapter discusses the 200-day average's advantage.

Is the "Copak Curve" the same as the Coppock Curve?

The source names it the Copak Curve; the indicator is more commonly written as the Coppock Curve. Either way it is a long-term momentum indicator used to time broad market exposure, and unlike the other tools here it has no single period setting — it is produced by a calculation rather than a lookback length.

Does this page include the trading rules from the video?

No. No mechanical rules were decoded for this entry, so what is filed here is the concept set, the indicators and timeframes named, and the video's chapter structure. Strategy Decoder extracts rule structure from video sources where it can be resolved cleanly; where it cannot, the entry says so rather than filling the gap.

About this strategy page

This trading strategy was decoded by Strategy Decoder's AI from a public YouTube trading video and turned into a structured, reviewable specification. In the interactive app this page shows the full entry and exit logic, risk management settings, the indicators involved with their parameters, AlgoWizard-compatible logic and a Pine Script export ready for TradingView backtesting — plus an automated backtest verdict when one has been computed for this strategy.

Strategy Decoder catalogs 2,229 decoded strategies. Each one is extracted with confidence scoring, cross-linked to the indicators it uses, and kept up to date as new videos are processed daily. Load this page with JavaScript enabled to use the interactive tools, or start from the strategy explorer to filter by methodology, market and timeframe.

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